Shiny Hunting / Guessing Game

[hatkirby]

I'm shiny hunting for some reason. Help.

I haven't historically done a lot of this because it's more fun to just randomly encounter shinies (the most iconic being my Shining Pearl starter). But when they distributed Oak's Letter in early 2022 and I learned that Shaymin wasn't shiny locked, I was like omg I'm gonna fulfill 13 year old me's dreams. So I've been on-and-off trying to get a shiny Shaymin. You just walk up to it, do the encounter, run away, walk like 20 paces out of the area and then back in, over and over. It's so boring. I have philosophical qualms about the meaningfulness of such a time-consuming activity.

I've tracked my attempts using a stitch counter that's just been floating around on my desk for literally three years now. I did like 600 attempts yesterday and today actually, and the counter is now at 3505. There's a 1/4096 chance every time, so I'm below the average number of attempts. And I'm kind of just doing it in the background while reading or watching something.

I thought maybe it'd be fun to make it into a game though! I'm opening up the floor to people guessing how many attempts it will take. Give me a four digit number, and when it finally happens (hopefully), we'll see how many of your digits match the actual number, and I'll draw that number of shitty doodles for you. I'm a very bad artist with horrible orphan hands so this prize has very low value but I hope you enjoy it anyway.

(If it takes over 10,000 attempts then... Then we'll figure it out I guess.)

[BeelieveinBees]

The counter is now at 3505?

I'm going to guess... 4322

[✝AngelSacrifice✝]

I'm gonna guess 4096 exactly!

[Ori]

3600!